Official MCP RegistryListed
Weather Markets Edge Desk
Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.
First seen 2 Oct 2026. Evidence as of 2 Oct 2026.
6
Tools
From an anonymous probe
1
Source listings
Each with its own history
0
Recorded changes
Since first seen
Tools
| Tool | Description | Behaviour |
|---|---|---|
| base_rate_gap | Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue. Free, no key. | Read-only |
| bayes_update | Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds". | Read-only |
| calculate_ev | Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read. Free, no key. Every PMP engine signal is graded in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record. | Read-only |
| convert_probability | Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds". | Read-only |
| edge_alerts | Use for "any edge on Kalshi" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice. | Read-only |
| kelly_size | Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade". | Read-only |
Change history
No changes since the first observation. The first snapshot is the baseline.
| Source | Listing | First seen | Last seen | Versions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official MCP Registry | com.predictionmarketspicks/weather | 2 Oct 2026 | 2 Oct 2026 | 1 |