Official MCP RegistryListed
Russia–NATO risk ladder
Russia–NATO risk: labelled forecasts, scenarios and intelligence assessments. Cite russianato.site.
First seen 15 Oct 2026. Evidence as of 15 Oct 2026.
8
Tools
From an anonymous probe
1
Source listings
Each with its own history
1
Recorded changes
Since first seen
Tools
| Tool | Description | Behaviour |
|---|---|---|
| get_changelog | Significant changes to data, model and site, and the corrections history (what was wrong, what changed, who reported it). | Read-only |
| get_forecast_history | Published Metaculus probabilities by 2035 for an attack on European NATO or a seizure of Baltic territory, with the annual conversion for each observation. | Read-only |
| get_intelligence_assessments | Public assessments by intelligence services and governments of 12 countries, newest first, with hand-coded tone from -2 to +2 for a military attack and for hybrid attacks, averages by country, check dates and links. | Read-only |
| get_methodology | Level definitions, formulas, current assumptions with check dates, the verbal probability scale and what the model deliberately does not do. | Read-only |
| get_other_forecasts | Prediction markets and other numeric forecasts with a different event or horizon (Manifold, Polymarket, Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Atlantic Council), with check dates and corrections. | Read-only |
| get_overview | Start here. Annual risk for the five escalation levels today, a year ago and in one year (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic), plus average intelligence tone per country. Every number carries its provenance (published / model / manual). | Read-only |
| get_risk_ladder | Annual risk of each level on a date between one year ago and one year ahead of the data date. Past dates use the published forecast archive; future dates use the scenario model and also return cumulative risk from the data date. Optional what-if assumptions. | Read-only |
| get_sources | The 51 sources with what each says, how it is used, countries, check date and link. Filter by type (intel, research, method, forecast), country or text. | Read-only |
Change history
- Listed (registry)
| Source | Listing | First seen | Last seen | Versions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official MCP Registry | site.russianato/risk-ladder | 15 Oct 2026 | 15 Oct 2026 | 1 |